The crypto market has shifted from October’s “Uptober” optimism to a sharp, fear-driven downturn, with Bitcoin leading the decline. Key support levels have crumbled, leaving investors confronting substantial losses.

Following the Black Friday crash triggered by geopolitical shocks such as President Trump’s tariff tweets, nearly $20 billion in open interest evaporated within hours. Even after the US government shutdown ended, Bitcoin continued to falter, falling below the $95,000 support last Friday and dipping under $90,000 for the first time in months.

Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Decline

The current sell-off stems from both macroeconomic pressures and technical vulnerabilities:

• Escalating trade tensions
• The Federal Reserve’s caution on rate reductions
• A death cross observed on technical charts

Institutional activity has amplified the decline. Spot ETFs recorded significant outflows, with firms like BlackRock and Fidelity pausing purchases, fueling panic among retail investors.

Bear vs. Bull: Analysts Weigh In

Bear Scenario:

• Bitcoin has wiped out year-to-date gains
• A 30% drop from peak levels and the breach of critical moving averages indicate a bear market
• A failure of the $88,000 support could trigger a retest of $75,000

Bull Scenario:

• Historical patterns suggest this could be a mid-cycle correction, similar to 2017 and 2021, often preceding parabolic gains
• On-chain metrics show long-term holders reducing sales slowly, implying stable fundamentals
• The recent deleveraging may act as a market reset, setting the stage for future growth

Investment Guidance: Traders vs. Long-Term Holders

For traders, the market trend is currently downward. High volatility makes catching falling assets risky, and reducing positions is considered prudent risk management.

For long-term investors (12–18 months horizon), panic selling is historically counterproductive. Selling now provides liquidity to institutions that may buy Bitcoin at a discount. At $89,000, Bitcoin is mathematically more attractive than its $126,000 ATH, assuming confidence in its digital gold thesis remains.

“The crypto market rewards patience over impatience,” analysts emphasize.

Outlook: Is Bitcoin’s 2025 Bull Run Over?

While the 2025 bull run is struggling, it is not dead. Recovery depends on Bitcoin regaining $95,000 to halt further declines. Experts recommend investors to:

• Hold positions
• Avoid over-monitoring charts
• Exercise patience, as the most profitable opportunities often require restraint