For entrepreneurs building in Nigeria, 2026 represents a transition year, not a reset. According to projections from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the country is moving into an economic consolidation phase after two years of painful structural reforms.

This phase is about making recent changes, fuel subsidy removal, FX reforms, and tight monetary policy, stick. The goal is stability, not stimulus. While economic stress has not disappeared, Nigeria is gradually stepping away from emergency mode.

Here are five major economic expectations startups should factor into their 2026 strategies.

1. Inflation Is Falling, but Household Pressure Persists

Nigeria recorded notable progress on inflation in 2025. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows headline inflation declined from 27.61% in January 2025 to 17.33% by November, marking a 10.28-point drop and the lowest level since mid-2022.

This slowdown was driven largely by strict monetary tightening from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Why this matters for startups:
More stable prices reduce uncertainty. Budgeting, pricing, and supplier negotiations become more predictable.

However, relief is uneven. Food prices remain elevated due to insecurity in agricultural zones and logistics disruptions. As a result, consumer spending power will recover gradually, not instantly.

2. High Interest Rates Will Linger, but the Worst May Be Over

Borrowing conditions remained tough throughout 2025. Lending rates stayed close to 29%, while the monetary policy rate hovered above 27%. Although there was mild easing toward year-end, credit remains costly.

Startup takeaway:
Debt financing will stay unattractive in 2026. Founders should continue prioritising bootstrapping, grants, and equity over bank loans.

That said, NESG anticipates incremental rate reductions if inflation continues trending downward. Loans may not become cheap, but they could become less suffocating.

3. FX Stability Is Likely to Hold

One of the most meaningful shifts in Nigeria’s economy has been currency stabilisation. In 2025, the spread between official and parallel FX rates narrowed to under 3%.

• Official average: ₦1,504/$
• Parallel market: ₦1,538/$

This followed FX market unification and reduced central bank intervention. After an initial shock, the naira found a more stable footing.

Why founders should care:
FX predictability lowers risk for importers, cross-border startups, and dollar-earning businesses. Currency volatility is no longer the biggest macro wildcard it once was.

4. Growth Will Continue—but Some Sectors Will Move Faster

Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.8% across the first three quarters of 2025, an improvement from 2024, but still below the government’s 4.6% growth target.

Sector performance varied sharply:

• Services: Over 60% of total growth
• Industry: ~22%
• Agriculture: ~18%
• Oil output: +9.4%
• Manufacturing: Just 1.5%

What this means for startups:
Founders in fintech, logistics, SaaS, media, e-commerce, and digital services are operating with macro tailwinds.

Manufacturing and agritech remain slower but are not being ignored. NESG projections target:

• Manufacturing growth: up to 8% annually
• Agricultural productivity: up to 6%

This points to future incentives and reforms favouring real-sector innovation.

5. Capital Will Flow In—But Long-Term Money Remains Selective

Capital inflows into Nigeria surged in 2025, reaching $22 billion between January and November, more than double the $10.8 billion recorded in 2024.

But the composition matters:

• 85% ($18.7bn) was foreign portfolio investment
• Only $0.8bn came as foreign direct investment (FDI)

Nigeria also secured a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings, reflecting improving macro fundamentals.

For startups:
Investor sentiment is improving, but patient capital is still cautious. Expect more scrutiny, fewer speculative bets, and a stronger focus on revenue, governance, and scalability.

Reality Check: Government Spending Will Remain Constrained

Although government revenue improved in 2025, non-oil taxes hit 93% of target, capital expenditure fell sharply. Development spending came in 73% below target, largely due to rising debt servicing costs.

Bottom line:
Do not plan around major government contracts or rapid infrastructure expansion in 2026. Fiscal space remains tight.

The Big Picture for Founders in 2026

The NESG outlook frames 2026 as a year of macro stability without abundance. Inflation is easing, FX is steadier, and confidence is returning, but financing is still tight, and growth is uneven.

Startups most likely to succeed will prioritise:

• Capital efficiency
• Sustainable unit economics
• Clear revenue models
• Alignment with fast-growing sectors or policy priorities

Nigeria is no longer in economic freefall, but it is not in a boom either. For disciplined founders, that balance may offer the best environment yet to build durable companies.