The United States has extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade deal that provides duty-free access to the US market for selected African exports, through December 31, 2026. The renewal comes as a political and economic lifeline for African countries, including Kenya, which are increasingly betting on digital trade to drive jobs and growth.

Kenyan officials had raised alarms over the potential impact of a lapse. More than 66,000 jobs in export processing zones (EPZs) and up to 800,000 livelihoods, including 3,000 to 7,000 tech-related roles, could have been affected if the agreement had not been renewed, following signals from US President Donald Trump that AGOA might be scrapped amid broader tariff changes.

While the renewal secures access to the US market for now, Kenya faces a growing test: whether its digital exports—including call centres, software development, and AI data labelling services—can sustain stable, well-paid jobs amid tighter US scrutiny of cross-border data flows and digital services.

Kenya has spent years building its “Silicon Savannah,” a tech-enabled export hub spanning business process outsourcing (BPO) to specialized AI annotation services for global technology firms. Despite these efforts, the sector shows signs of strain. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), ICT export earnings fell from KES 227 million ($1.76 million) in October 2025 to KES 208.1 million ($1.61 million) in November, while ICT imports grew from KES 4.4 billion ($34.1 million) to KES 5.1 billion ($39.5 million), widening the trade gap and highlighting the sector’s reliance on digital payments and labour.

Policy signals from Washington remain critical. Tariffs on specific digital services or new data-localisation rules could prompt major clients to shift contracts overnight, putting pressure on Kenyan firms and threatening job security for workers dependent on US-facing contracts.

The challenge is amplified by Kenya’s labour landscape, where more than 80% of non-farm workers lack formal contracts or social protections, despite an official unemployment rate of 5.6%. Fewer US contracts could translate to weaker earnings and reduced remittances for families across the country.

Industry body Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) welcomed the extension, noting it prevents supply chain disruptions and order cancellations that had started affecting export planning in late 2025.

“The United States of America is one of Kenya’s most important trading partners, accounting for about 9% of our external market. Kenya’s exports to the USA stood at $788.6 million in 2025, compared to imports of $930.8 million,” said Tobias Alando, CEO of KAM.

While AGOA’s renewal buys time for Kenyan exporters, it does little to ease the shift toward stricter checks on digital trade tied to national security and data privacy, leaving the country’s tech-driven export sector vulnerable to sudden policy changes.