Cordros Securities has upgraded its target price for MTN Nigeria Communications Plc to N616.07, up from N588.74, marking a 4.6% increase. The revision comes on the back of MTN Nigeria’s strong nine-month results and continued momentum in data revenue growth.

According to the investment firm’s latest equity note, MTN delivered impressive financial performance with 57.5% revenue growth, an EBITDA margin improvement of 15.1 percentage points to 51.4%, and Earnings Per Share (EPS) of N35.77.

Reiterating its BUY rating, Cordros said the new target price implies a potential 29.7% upside from MTN’s market price of N475 as of November 18. With MTN’s N5.00 interim dividend already announced, the analysts now expect the company to pay a total dividend of N15.50 per share in 2025.

2025 Outlook: Stronger Operating Environment to Boost Earnings

Cordros anticipates a considerably stronger year for MTN Nigeria in 2025, driven by improved operating efficiency and more favourable macroeconomic conditions. Key expectations include:

• Sharp Decline in Finance Costs

Net finance costs are forecast to fall by 70.7% YoY to N389.84 billion, helped by an expected rise in finance income.

• Data to Drive the Bulk of Revenue

Data earnings are projected to surge 71.2% YoY, keeping it as MTN’s most profitable segment.

• Voice Revenue Set for Recovery

Voice services are expected to grow 52.5% YoY, supported by a gradual rebound in consumer spending.

• Improved ARPU and Subscriber Growth

• ARPU is predicted to climb 45% YoY to N5,053.55.
• The subscriber base is projected to grow 7.1% to 86.61 million.

Significant Forex Gains Expected

MTN is projected to post a net FX gain of N84.53 billion, reversing the foreign-exchange losses incurred in 2024.

Cordros analysts estimate MTN Nigeria will achieve EPS of N53.31 in 2025, a sharp improvement compared to the N19.10 loss per share recorded in 2024.

Nine-Month 2025 Results: MTN Swings Back to Profit

MTN Nigeria posted a pre-tax profit of N1.12 trillion for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, a strong turnaround from the N713.6 billion pre-tax loss recorded in the same period of 2024.

In Q3 2025, MTN recorded N504.2 billion in pre-tax profit, up dramatically from N37.7 billion in Q3 2024.

Total revenue reached N3.73 trillion, driven by outstanding performance across major business segments:

• Data Revenue:

N1.97 trillion, representing 73% YoY growth and more than half of total earnings.

• Voice Revenue:

N1.19 trillion, up 48% YoY from N803.95 billion.

Other services accounted for the remaining contribution to revenue.